Trump’s Big, Ugly Bill:
Enrich the Wealthy, Leave the Many Further Behind
"The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor." - Voltaire
"When the rich rob the poor, it's called business. When the poor fights back, it's called violence." – Mark Twain
Bottom Line Upfront: BLUF
1. A Gift to the Rich, a Gut Punch to the Poor
Trump’s tax bill delivers windfalls to the wealthiest Americans—up to $12,500 annually for high earners—while offering crumbs to working-class families and gutting essential programs like Medicaid and SNAP.
2. Millions to Lose Healthcare and Food Assistance
At least 12 million people will lose Medicaid by 2034, and over 20 million families could see their SNAP benefits slashed or eliminated, jeopardizing food security for children, seniors, veterans, and working families.
3. Economic Sabotage Disguised as Reform
The bill explodes the national deficit—adding $330 billion per year—while enriching billionaires with tax breaks on pass-through income and estate transfers, leaving the rest of us to foot the bill.
4. Racial and Economic Injustice Deepened
African Americans, who disproportionately rely on Medicaid and SNAP, are hit hardest, yet reap few benefits due to vast underrepresentation among high-income households.
5. Deportation-Fueled Job Losses
Trump’s plan to deport 1 million immigrants a year could lead to 6 million job losses, harming not just immigrant workers but entire sectors—especially construction and childcare—that depend on their labor and that of U.S.-born citizens.
6. Assault on Education and Mental Health
Trump has withheld $7 billion in lawfully allocated school funds and slashed $1 billion in mental health grants—crippling services for low-income and vulnerable students nationwide.
7. Anti-DEI and White Nationalist Agenda
From targeting diversity policies at universities to restoring Confederate base names, the administration is actively dismantling racial progress and embedding White nationalist ideology into federal policy.
8. Democracy Under Siege
With efforts that continue to find ways to suppress voting through ID laws and purging mail-in ballots, and by embedding surveillance tools and authoritarian offices like the “Office of Remigration,” Trump’s agenda is a full-scale attack on civil rights, democracy, and the multiracial future of America.
Introduction: The Bottom Line for This Bill
I started writing this newsletter on America’s 249th birthday. In my more cynical moments, I wonder whether we’ll make it to the 250th. No doubt we will, but what will be the state of the nation? It’s still way too early to tell.
Nevertheless, on July 4th, I celebrate my family, my neighbors, and the hundreds of millions of people who make up our nation, including the millions of immigrants who contribute billions to our economy and perform some of the most arduous and thankless work that makes our economy go.
But in the days leading up to July 4th, I had very little to celebrate.
The House of Representatives approved Tr*mp’s Big Ugly Bill with four votes to spare. It was a comprehensive bill; Republicans included everything they could think of. Still, it can be summed up in two key points:
The greatest beneficiaries are wealthy households while the biggest losers, despite Tr*mp winning so many of their votes, are ‘hardworking’ Americans struggling to get by.
At least in the short term, The Always Tr*mpers ensured the president would remain unstoppable in his pro-authoritarian, anti-Constitutional campaign, at least until the 2026 elections.
For about the last month, I’ve kept this newsletter focused on significant progress happening on equity and justice issues despite the Tr*mp Administration’s reckless and premeditated agenda over the past six months.
I will use the upcoming newsletter (or possibly the next three) to evaluate the damage the Tr*mp administration continues to cause to our nation, economy, and progress toward greater racial justice.
Yes, the Rich Will Keep Getting Richer
Tr*mp will cheer relentlessly for the tax cuts he’s brought to Americans. Yet, let’s look at the details: for the top 10% of high-earning households, they will see their after-tax incomes increase by 2 to 3% per year for the next 10 years.
A person making more than $200,000 per year will see a tax cut of at least $12,500.
A person making $35,000? A tax cut, on average, of the equivalent of one weekly grocery bill, $150.[1] [2]
The Withering of Medicaid
Tr*mp is paying for the tax cut by gouging programs for lower-income households, namely food stamps and Medicaid.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that at least 12 million Americans will lose their Medicaid health insurance by 2034. Furthermore, the cuts to Medicaid are expected to place a heavy strain on rural hospitals and nursing homes, leading many to close in the coming years.[3]
The Kaiser Family Foundation predicts that the nation will see a significant number of households lose their health insurance, with substantial impacts on both Red and Blue states: California (1.7 million losing insurance), Florida (990,000), New York (920,000), and Texas (770,000).[4]
The Gradual Gutting of SNAP
Like me, you might not know much about the specifics of food stamps or what is now called SNAP benefits for lower-income households.
First, SNAP helps nearly 43 million people have food on the table every day. It is the U.S.’s most important and effective anti-hunger program. As food insecurity in America has been a major challenge for decades, it has worsened as food prices continued to rise during and after the pandemic.
48% of SNAP households include a person receiving disability benefits.
47% have children; in fact, these benefits prevent 16 million children each year from going completely hungry.
39% are households with older adults.
8% of all veterans (or 1.2 million Americans) receive SNAP benefits.
80% of SNAP households include someone who is working (contrary to popular perception).
SNAP recipients on average receive $6.16 per person each day, which amounts to about $43/week.[5]
Cuts to SNAP mean less funding for nutrition programs for women, infants, and children aged 1-4. It also means children will lose free school meals.
Tr*mp’s bill cuts SNAP by 30%.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also estimates that expanding work requirements for SNAP will result in 3.2 million people losing their monthly benefits. Additionally, by shifting food stamps onto cash-strapped states, it could lead states to cut or eliminate benefits for 1.3 million Americans.
Urban Institute estimates that up to 22 million families will lose some or all of their SNAP benefits. At least a quarter of those (5.3 million) will lose $25 or more each month. That adds up to about $1,750 per recipient over the course of a year.[6]
The Bill Massively Increases the Federal Deficit and Debt
Overall, the bill slams the poorest of America while disproportionately helping the richest.
Beyond cuts to income tax, there are two other parts of the bill that mainly benefit the very wealthy (essentially the top one-tenth of one percent):
Permanent deductions on ‘pass-through’ business income for the top 1% of taxpayers;
An increase in the estate tax threshold (rising from $15 million to $30 million in assets).[7]
Despite what Tr*mp will tell America, the bill increases the already astronomical national debt, which currently stands at $36.2 trillion.
In fact, this bill adds far more to the debt and deficit than the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the American Rescue Plan under President Biden, both of which provided significantly more benefits to everyday Americans, communities, and local and regional economies. It also more than doubles what Tr*mp’s previous 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act added to the federal debt and deficit.[8]
The federal deficit, which was $1.8 trillion this fiscal year, is expected to increase by $330 billion annually over the next decade. As a result, the yearly deficit will exceed $2.1 trillion, and the total debt will reach approximately $39.5 trillion.[9]
The Impact on African Americans
As a regular reader of this newsletter, it won’t surprise you that while African Americans make up about 13.6% of the population, they are disproportionately and negatively affected by the bill because they make up:
20.8% of all Medicaid enrollees and will, therefore, be disproportionately impacted.[10]
Roughly 26% of SNAP recipients, once again making them disproportionately impacted.[11]
Only 6% of the top income quintile (top 20%), so relatively few African Americans will benefit.[12]
Think these tax and benefit cuts will boost the economy? Think again.
The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) estimates that by allocating large amounts of money—tens of billions of dollars annually—for immigrant deportation, the bill could result in the loss of 6 million jobs, mainly in construction and child care, but also in other sectors such as farming. These job losses won't be limited to immigrants alone.
A decline in roofers and framers means fewer houses being built, leading to decreased work for U.S.-born electricians and plumbers. Fewer childcare workers will not only force some centers to reduce hours but may also cause closures, affecting U.S.-born parents who might need to cut back their work hours and take on more child care responsibilities at home.
EPI estimates that if Tr*mp deports 1 million immigrants each year, within four years the country will have 3.3 million fewer immigrants working and 2.6 million fewer U.S.-born workers. Job losses in construction and child care could exceed 15%.[13]
No surprise: Although Black people make up only 13 percent of the American labor force, they comprise 18 percent of U.S. childcare workers.[14]
Check out this short video from MSNBC that tells heartwarming stories about Americans standing up for their immigrant neighbors and getting them released from ICE custody: Link.
Meanwhile, as the White House tends to do, they forecast strong 5% economic growth by 2028, gradually decreasing to around 3% through 2034.
However, nonpartisan analyses from the CBO, the Tax Policy Center, the Yale Budget Lab, the Tax Foundation, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model predict weak economic growth as a result of the bill—between 0 and 1% annual growth from now until 2034, far worse than anything we’ve seen since the Great Recession[15]
BEYOND THE BILL: What else is important to know?
As we all know, the Big Ugly Bill is just one part of the many threats to U.S. democracy, economic equity, and healthcare. I’ve followed parallel issues that are equally concerning.
Trump Withholds Nearly $7 Billion for Schools, with little explanation
The administration has not yet disbursed $7 billion allocated for, among other programs, “after-school and summer programs, support for students learning English, teacher training and other services.”[16]
These are funds that Congress has lawfully funded since last fall.
About 20% of those federal funds, or $1.3 billion annually, go to support 1.4 million students, mostly from lower-income families. That accounts for roughly 20% of all students nationwide who attend after-school programs.
Lacking access to these funds will severely affect low-income school districts across rural, suburban, and urban areas, hindering their ability to offer after-school programs. Many of these programs for low-income students exist solely because of these funds.
Once again, African American children and workers will be unfairly affected.
States Sue Trump Administration over $1 Billion cut to school mental health programs
The administration didn’t stop there. A couple of months ago, the federal Department of Education cut $1 billion in mental health grants for schools. Sixteen states are suing the administration for unconstitutionally ending these grants.
Once again, it’s not surprising who this affects most severely. “The programs offer counseling to students and remove financial barriers for people interested in becoming school psychologists. Schools will now not be able to reliably provide mental health services to the kids that need them most.”[17]
Places like Madera County, CA (north of Fresno), would lose nearly $4 million and cut about a dozen mental health services staff members. “About 91% of the county’s public school students are socioeconomically disadvantaged.”[18]
In the 16 states that are suing, the grants funded mental health services to nearly 800,000 elementary and secondary students.
US launches new unit to target DEI policies at colleges
In May, the US DOJ established an entirely new unit to “crack down on federally-funded universities that have diversity, equity, and inclusion policies using a civil anti-fraud law.”[19]
Specifically, the administration states that universities are “pushing antisemitic, anti-American, Marxist and “radical left” ideologies.”[20] Tr*mp looks, deceitfully, to use the False Claims Act to recover funds from universities that he maintains are obtained through fraud. This is a broader extension that builds on the false claims his administration has made against the likes of Harvard and Columbia.
The Pace of anti-affirmative action grows
What Tr*mp is doing at the federal level builds on a groundswell of anti-affirmative action measures that states have taken since 2023 (after the Supreme Court’s affirmative action decision): 29 states, 135 anti-DEI bills, 29 bills signed into law.
For years, affirmative action policies have expanded college access for Black students and other students of color. However, these coordinated moves mean we’re headed back to a time of exclusion again in higher education, and an even more inequitable society.
Judge deems Trump’s cuts to National Institutes of Health illegal
Last month, a federal judge ruled that $1 billion in grants from the National Institutes of Health that Tr*mp has tried to terminate
A federal judge ruled in mid-June that Tr*mp’s decision to terminate NIH grants exceeding $1 billion, which focused on equity and diversity research, was illegal. The judge, appointed by Republican President Ronald Reagan, indicated he had “never seen a record where racial discrimination was so palpable.”[21]
Trump Says army bases will revert to confederate names
Also last month, Tr*mp began restoring the names of army bases, which were formerly named after Confederate generals, that had been changed following George Floyd’s murder. Remember, this was a bipartisan Congressional decision from the second half of 2020.[22]
Nothing should surprise us anymore about what he and his administration are willing to do to benefit his legion of MAGA supporters. This is pure White nationalism and a national disgrace.
Federal Judge Blocks Trump’s anti-voting decree, says it would likely disenfranchise voters
Finally, in recent actions, a federal judge blocked parts of the president’s order last month, which required proof of citizenship when registering to vote and prevented states from counting mail-in ballots after Election Day. The judge ruled in favor of the 19 states that challenged the order, stating they “have shown a substantial risk that it would disenfranchise voters.”[23]
Requiring proof of citizenship could obstruct the registration process for voters who lack easy access to citizenship documentation and would likely disenfranchise Black voters disproportionately, as well as those with lower incomes.
If you’re keeping track at home, all of these recent actions build on atrocious orders to:
I’m grateful that, as of July 3rd , at least 190 rulings by federal courts have “stayed” some of the administration’s initiatives and orders.[24]
See you next week.
Footnotes
[1] Tony Romm, “Poorest Americans dealt biggest blow under Senate Republican tax package, The New York Times, July 1, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/business/poor-americans-senate-legislation.html.
[2] Steve Benen, “Republican megabill would make the rich richer and the poor poorer, CBO concludes,” MSNBC: MaddowBlog, June 12, 2025, https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/republican-megabill-make-rich-richer-poor-poorer-cbo-concludes-rcna212647.
[3] Romm.
[4] Burns et al, “How Will the 2025 Reconciliation Bill Affect the Uninsured Rate in Each State? Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Coverage Loss, The Kaiser Family Foundation, June 6, 2025, https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/issue-brief/how-will-the-2025-reconciliation-bill-affect-the-uninsured-rate-in-each-state-allocating-cbos-estimates-of-coverage-loss/.
[5] “SNAP National Data Fact Sheet,” https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/SNAP-National-Data-Fact-Sheet.pdf.
[6] Urban Institute email July 2, 2025.
[7] Badger, et al., “Trump’s Big Bill Would Be More Regressive Than Any Major Law in Decades, New York Times, June 12, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/12/upshot/gop-megabill-distribution-poor-rich.html.
[8] Steven Rattner, “How Bad is This Bill? The Answer in 10 Charts.” The New York Times, July 3, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/03/opinion/domestic-policy-bill-in-charts.html.
[9] NYT Jacob Hacker and Patrick Sullivan, The Four Ugliest Points about the Big Beautiful Bill. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/opinion/trump-republicans-megabill.html.
[10] Drew Desilver, “What the data says about Medicaid,” Pew Research Center, June 24, 2025, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/06/24/what-the-data-says-about-medicaid/.
[11] Heather Hartline Grafton and Ellen Vollinger, “New USDA Report Provides Picture of Who Participates,” Food Research and Action Center, March 2021, https://frac.org/blog/new-usda-report-provides-picture-of-who-participates-in-snap
[12] Boddupalli, Holtzblatt, and Hunter, “A Guide To Understanding Racial Disparities In The Federal Individual Income Tax System,” Tax Policy Center, June 13, 2024, p. 4, https://taxpolicycenter.org/sites/default/files/publication/165902/a-guide-to-understanding-racial-disparities-in-the-federal-individual-income-tax-system.pdf#.
[13] Ben Zipperer, “The Republican budget bill would eliminate nearly six million jobs by unleashing Trump’s radical mass deportation agenda,” Economic Policy Institute, July 1, 2025, https://www.epi.org/blog/the-republican-budget-bill-would-eliminate-nearly-six-million-jobs-by-unleashing-trumps-radical-mass-deportation-agenda/.
[14] Erica Phillips, “After years of silent sacrifices and unseen struggles, Black women are still holding up the child care industry,” National Association for Family Child Care, March 5, 2024, https://nafcc.org/opinion-after-years-of-silent-sacrifices-and-unseen-struggles-black-women-are-still-holding-up-the-child-care-industry/.
[15] Steven Rattner, “How Bad is This Bill? The Answer in 10 Charts.” The New York Times, July 3, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/03/opinion/domestic-policy-bill-in-charts.html.
[16] Sarah Mervosh and Michael C. Bender, “Trump Withholds Nearly $7 Billion for Schools, with little explanation,” New York Times, July 1, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/us/trump-education-funds.html.
[17] Ben Brasch, “States Sue Trump Administration over $1 Billion cut to school mental health programs, The Washington Post, July 1, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/07/01/lawsuit-education-department-mental-health-grants/.
[18] Ibid.
[19] Sarah N. Lynch, “US launches unit to target DEI policies at colleges, Reuters, May 20, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/us-launches-unit-target-dei-policies-colleges-with-civil-fraud-probes-2025-05-20/.
[20] Ibid.
[21] Evan Bush, “Judge deems Trump’s cuts to National Institutes of Health illegal,” Reuters, June 16, https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/judge-deems-trumps-cuts-national-institutes-health-illegal-rcna213360.
[22] Chris Cameron, “Trump Says army bases will revert to confederate names,” The New York Times, June 10, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/us/politics/trump-army-base-rename-confederate.html.
[23] Jacob Knutson, “Federal Judge Blocks Trump’s anti-voting decree, says it would likely disenfranchise voters,” Democracy Docket, June 13, https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/judge-halts-trump-anti-voting-executive-order-disenfranchise-voters/.
[24] Alex Lemonides, et al, “Tracking the lawsuits against Trump’s agenda,” The New York Times, July 3, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/us/trump-administration-lawsuits.html.
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